2013 BBWAA, Part 4: Whose Votes To Pay Attention To

So from what I have read and heard, looks like everyone is sticking it to Bonds and Clemens. So, there's them and who else that the voters should take a look at, positive and negative:

There are two leadoff hitters: Tim Raines (6th time) and Kenny Lofton (1st time). Although not exaclty sluggers, they weren't exactly singles hitters either, as both his over 150 homeruns. Raines' OBP (.385) is the 5th highest of anyone on the ballot this year. Lofton stole more bases (622) than anyone else on the ballot except Timmy (802), and Raines played about 400 more games.

Personally, I'd have no problem with either of them making it. But somehow I don't think this year. Loften will probably have to wait at least 7 years. By then, hopefully, Raines will be in. Voters will vote this year for them, you just watch!

Then, as mentioned in an earlier blog, there are the big three pitchers: Morris, Wells, Schilling. Now all won less than 300 games, but all won more than 200 and all were great postseason pitchers. Granted, the lowest of the three's ERA was Schilling's 3.46. But the postseason success of all three, plus there is no PEDs here, should see them get a lot of votes this year. I doubt Morris and Wells will make it this time. Schilling might, because pitching the Red Sox to a World Series, gets everyone's attention!

Starters? How about closers? We have three very fine candidates in Lee Smith, Jose Mesa and Roberto Hernandez. All have over 300 saves. But like the above big three pitchers, all of them have high ERAs.

How about Dale Murphy? It's his last year on the ballot. And while I think it's a real long shot, because, note the irony here, he was so nice, and the guy who wasn't (Bonds) is also on the ballot for the first time. This makes me think he will get a lot of votes.

Now how about Alan Trammell? He had some power (185), hit a more-than-respectable .285 and was an excellent defensive shortstop. It's his 13th year on the ballot.

The guy with the highest OBP (.418), next to Bonds, is Edgar Martinez. Next is Jeff Bagwell (.408) and Larry Walker (.400).

My bet to get in this year would be Bagwell, since there is no steroid accusations, over 400 homeruns (449), an average around .300 (.297) and a high OBP. His 1529 RBIs is second to Fred McGriff (I think Freddie will make it in about 5 years) among non-steroid users. He'll get a lot of votes for that.

The other player who should make it is Mike Piazza. Again, no steroid use. 427 homeruns as a catcher is eye popping. And he batted over .300 (.308). The voters can't overlook a catcher that great.


References

Shalin, Mike, and Neil Shalin. Out By A Step: The 100 Best Players Not In The Baseball Hall of Fame. Lanham: Diamond Communications, 2002. Print.

Sports Reference LLC. Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Statistics and Information. http://www.baseball-reference.com/. Web. 8 Jan. 2013.

2013 BBWAA, Part 3: The Problem With NOT Voting For Bonds

Barry Bonds has us in a predicament.

If we don't vote for him or Clemens, how do we know for sure the guy we are voting for is Hall Of Fame material?

Or the guy could not be first ballot Hall Of Fame, but he gets in, on his year on the ballot! Hey, even Roberto Alomar didn't make it his first year, and he didn't takes PEDs!

That's a scenario that could very well play itself out, not only this year, but over the course of the next coming years.

See, take some of the names I think should be in:

Morris

Wells

Schilling

Okay, like I said, they all had great postseason success, which does seem to be an edge.

But take Morris and Wells, who had high ERAs, or Schilling, who won only 216 games. Schilling's ERA was pretty high (3.46), too. Should Schilling go in his first year on the ballot? Should Morris or Wells go in at all?

Now, none of them cheated.

And while I think they should be in, that doesn't mean you think they should be in.

It's strange, you know. Some guys might make it because they're numbers fall short.

I even expect Dale Murphy to get a high number of votes this year. It's his last year on the ballot. He was Mr Nice Guy To All.

He won't get enough to get in. But when we are talking about whose better, years down the road, you will all say he was better than Bonds. Just as you all say that Roger Maris was better than Bonds.

I have to laugh at that. I'm here to tell you (and I like both Roger Maris and Dale Murphy), neither of them is better than Bonds.

Not even close.

Not even in the same sentence.

Know how painful that is to say?

Not so painful as knowing they were better people than Bonds.

But that is not what the Hall Of Fame is all about here, people. It's about greatness, domination.

And you could argue that Mattingly and Trammell, two of my favs, are also not Hall Of Fame material. But, you know what, I think one of them might make it if no one votes for Clemens, Bonds, Sosa and other PEDs who will be added to the ballot next year.
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I mean, Griffey is better than Bonds, I think. It's so sad to look how his numbers went down the last few years. Why? Because he didn't cheat.

Part of me wishes he had cheated. He was a nice guy, he was well liked, and he was better than Bonds. Better than Sosa, McGwire, A-Rod, Palmerio, Gonzalez and these other sluggers who we know cheated.

But years from now, look at their stats. Griffey looks not as good as Bonds, A-Rod. And not that much better than Sosa, Palmerio, Gonzalez, etc

And part of me thinks that is not right!

I want to be able, years from now, to walk into a bar and say how happy I am that (insert non-cheater HOF here) made the baseball Hall Of Fame. And not hear, out of the corner of my ear, "He only made it because they didn't vote for Bonds", and have to nod my head in reluctant agreement!


References



Canseco, Jose. Juiced (Jose Canseco). Regan Books., 2005.

Kalb, Elliott. Who's Better, Who's Best in Baseball: Mr. Stats Sets the Record Straight on the Top 75 Players of All Time. McGraw-Hill, 2005. Print.

Sports Reference LLC. Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Statistics and Information. http://www.baseball-reference.com/. Web. 17 Dec. 2012.

2013 BBWAA Ballot, Part 1: The Jays Players

So here we go in what is unquestionally going to be the most memorable Hall Of Fame induction. One that I am sure is going to pave the way, one way or another for what we are all going to do with all the PED users.

But for now I digress and choose to look at some of the players on this years ballot who wore the Blue and White Toronto Blue Jays:

Name: Royce Clayton

Years on Ballot: 0 (First Year, and probably Last Year)

Blue Jay From: 2007

To: 2007 (69 Games)

Hall Of Fame Chances: Pretty much none, although he was one of best fielding shortstops of his time as he was consistantly among the leaders in Range Factor Per Game and Range Factor Per 9 Innings. He didn't hit for much of an average (.258 BA and .312 OBA) and little power (110 homeruns).

Name: Roger Clemens

Years on Ballot: 0 (First Year)

From: 1997

To: 1998

Hall Of Fame Chances: Oh, here we go. I'd say I would stay clear of this, but...

Anyways, the minute I bring up his lifetime stats, you say, "Yeah, you want to know how get got those..."

There really is no point with the stats. It is thought that Clemens started using PEDs in 1998, although, just to satisfy you haters, I'm going to go a little further than this and say, 1997.

The reason I say this, is Clemens came to the Jays that year. And here is a breakdown of his career up until his last four seasons in Boston:

Seasons: 9

G: 273

GS: 272 (His one relief stint you ask? July 18th, 1984 vs Oakland)

W: 152

L: 72

W%: .679

ERA: 2.80

IP: 2031.0

H: 1703

K: 1873

BB: 552

OBA: .226

OOBP: .282

Then came 4 bad years (1993-1996)

Seasons: 4

G: 110

GS: 110

W: 40

L: 39

W%: .506

ERA: 3.77

SHO: 4

IP: 745.0

H: 656

K: 717

BB: 304

OBA: .236

OOBP: .316

So the totals of the Rocket in Boston are:

Seasons: 13

G: 383

GS: 382

W: 192

L: 111

W%: .634

ERA: 3.06

SHO: 38

IP: 2776.0

H: 2359

K: 2590

BB: 856

OBA: .229

OOBP: .292

So he turned it around in '97 with the Jays in '97 going 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA. The Jays won only 76 games that year. They then improved to 88 wins next year, the most games won by a Jays team in a single season since they last won it all in '93 (Clemens had never had a losing season up 'til that point, but he went 11-14 that season).

Clemens started out slow that 1998 year, though. By the end of May, he was 5-6 and his ERA was 3.50!

Then something clicked.

Roger went 15-0 from there until the end of the season, 22 starts. His ERA was 2.29 for that stretch and batters hit .201 against him. He fanned 201 batters in 165.1 inning. That's an average of almost 11 K's per nine innings!

I'm guessing, this is the PEDs kicking in for sure. This is someone 36 years old, leading the league in ERA for the second straight year (2.65), winning 20 games and fanning 271 batters!

From there, it's off to New York for David Wells, and then to Houston, where in 2005, at the age of 43(!) he compiles a 13-8 record and an ERA of 1.87!

Oh, wait a minute, the above doesn't count, now does it?

Seems to me like Clemens was on pace for the Hall of Fame before 1993, dipped to "win one, lose one" for the next 4 seasons, really came back in '97, and was almost as good in '98.

So odd that he has that great year in 1997 with no PEDs, though. I gotta think he was doing something with them in '97, else how do you explain how he does so well with a sub .500 team?

Clemens finished with 354 wins, 3.12 ERA and 4672 Ks. Opponents batted just .229 against him lifetime.

But, let me guess, the PEDs did all that.

I think Clemens could have finished his career with around 250-275 wins. Lotta Ks and and a low batting average against. He would have made the Hall of Fame eventually with those numbers, although, perhaps not first ballot.

At any rate, he's going in.

And on this coming year, 2013.

Name: Shawn Green

Years on Ballot: 0 (First Year)

From: 1993

To: 1999 (716 games)

Hall Of Fame Chances: Green came up to Toronto in '93, was okay for a few years, then suddenly caught fire in 1998, and went on to finish his career with 328 homeruns, more than 1000 RBIs and more than 1100 runs scored. His lifetime batting average was just .283, but he did have a .355 on base percentage.

I also though he was a very, very good fielder.

But his numbers fall short. He might stay on the ballot for a few years, but that's all you can expect

Name: Fred McGriff

Years on Ballot: 3 (Fourth Year)

From: 1986

To: 1990 (578 games)

Hall Of Fame Chances: The Jays needed someone to replace George Bell in left, so they made a trade with San Diego that sent McGriff and Tony Fernandez for Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar.

McGriff went from there to Altanta to Tampa Bay to the Cubs to the Dodgers and finally back to the Rays.

Everywhere he went, he hit.

And he basically contended (although he never won) for the triple crown each year.

He finished his career with 493 homeruns, 1550 RBIs, .284 BA and a .377 OBP.

These totals are good. And there has never been any steriod accusations, which helps him even more. I think he'll make it, but he might have to wait 5-7 years.

Name: Jack Morris

Years on Ballot: 13 (14th Year)

From: 1992

To: 1993 (61 games)

Hall Of Fame Chances: Morris is an interesting case. He did win 254 games, which brings considerable consideration (Just remember, I invented that saying!) to the Hall. He also won a World Series with the Tigers in '84, the Twins in '91 and the Jays in '92. And he did have a lot to do with all three. Let's not forget, prior to Morris coming to the Jays, no Toronto pitcher had won 20 games. Morris did that and 1 better.

Now, the knock against Morris is that his ERA is high (3.90). And it had nothing to do with Tiger Stadium:

Morris Home ERA Lifetime: 3.90 in 288 games

Morris Away ERA Lifetime: 3.90 in 269 games

Morris Tiger Stadium ERA Lifetime: 3.80 in 224 games

See, it was actually lower at Tiger Stadium than at other ballparks.

But still, Morris brought the right attitude to clubhouse. He never made excuses, never pointed at teammates. To the Jays he brought a swagger, an arrogance, that I really think helped the team. And this rubbed off on Toronto, even on days Jack wasn't pitching. The Jays were missing these things.

For a while, I would have said no to Morris. Consider me, if I was a voter to vote.

Vote for Morris.

Name: David Wells

Years On Ballot: 0 (First Year)

1st Tour Of Duty With Jays

From: 1987

To: 1992 (237 Games)

2nd Tour Of Duty

From: 1999

To: 2000 (69 games)

Hall Of Fame Chances: If it was what he looked like, Wells would have a difficult time explaining what he was doing in a baseball uniform, much less the Hall Of Fame for baseball.

Seriously though, Wells looked to me like a guy who was inconsistant, season to season and even start to start. But he got it together in the Bronx, came back to Toronto and won every game he pitched, then pretty much went wherever he wanted and won everything.

What's impressive to me about Boomer is, all those teams he played for, he'd give up hits, have a high ERA and he'd just win, win, win, no matter how good or bad the team was. That's how he did it with teams like New York and Boston, but also in teams like Toronto and Detroit.

He finished his career with 239 wins and only .604 W%. And no PEDs, although good thing Wells didn't take them. Might have done, god only knows to him.

Anyways, he pitched in the postseason for, ready?

Toronto

Cincinatti

Baltimore

New York

Boston

San Diego

See, winning just followed this guy around! And he was 10-5 (That's a .667 W%) in the postseason.

Wells is up against Clemens, Morris and Curt Schilling. Only Clemens has a better  W%, and that's under a cloud according to you.

Morris was 7-4 in the postseason (.636)

Schilling was 11-2 in the postseason (.846)

Clemens was 12-8 in the postseason (.600)

So Wells is right there with wins in the postseason and W% in the postseason.

So he gets my vote, because Wells wins everywhere, everytime, April to November!

Plus, baseball players come in all shapes and sizes. Gotta have someone in the Bronx that looks a litte different. Perfect for the Hall!

Name: Woody Williams

Years on Ballot: 0 (First Year and probably Last Year )

From: 1993

To: 1998 (166 games)

Hall Of Fame Chances: I still remember thinking about Woody as the 4th or 5th starter on the Jays. But as Toronto declined from 1994 on, he moved on up and became a "good 3rd or 4th starter". Once he got out of Toronto, he went from San Diego to St Louis back to San Diego and finally to Houston in 2007, where he retired.

Actually, he was better than I remember. The guy actually won 132 games, led the NL in winning % back in 2006 at the age of 39 (?!) and had seasons of 18, 15, 12 (x2), 11, 10 (x2).

Great enough for a #3 or #4 starter. Too bad there is isn't a "#3 or #4 starter Hall Of Fame, because my favs Claude Osteen, Mike Cuellar, Mike Garcia and Johnny Podres would get in.

Alas, none of these guys or Williams will ever get in!


References


Sports Reference LLC.  Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Statistics and Information. http://www.baseball-reference.com/. Web. 3 Dec. 2012.