NHL Playoffs, Round 1, Part B

Western Conference Calgary Flames (1) Vs. Colorado Avalanche (8)

Calgary Will Win If: A) Their youth and experience comes through, and B) Their goaltending holds up! The Flames will look to players like Johhny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuck to keep the Avs back on their heels. However, the goaltending tandem of David Rittich and Mike Smith must make the key saves in goal. Neither was especially good in the regular season. James Neal, who has played in the Stanley Cup Finals the last two years with two different teams, needs to regain his playoff form. He struggled through a disappointing regular season (7-12-19). However, the playoffs are where Neal has shined in the past (30 goals and 53 points in his last 93 postseason contests). Now is the time for him to come through.

Colorado Will Win If: A) "The Big Three" comes through and B) Their goaltending is better than Calgary. The names MacKinnon, Rantenen and Landeskog had 75-or more points to go along with 31, 34, and 41 goals respectively. But the big question is the goaltending. I gotta believe the Avalanche are going with Phillip Grubauer, who sipped from the Stanley Cup as Braden Holtby's backup last year on the Capitals. Phillip was 18-9-5 in the regular season. Speaking of Holtby and Washington...

Eastern Conference Washington Capitals (2) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (7)

Washington Will Win If: They play like they did down the stretch this year and throughout the playoffs last season. Only four points seperated these two teams, but Washington has the edge, although it's easy to have a let-down the year after you won the Cup. But they have Ovechkin and his 51 goals this year. How about Holtby the excellent goalie? Okay, so what if his regular season numbers weren't good this year? They weren't good last season, and you all saw what happened in the playoffs! Braden brings together a 45-37 record in the playoffs. His GAA (2.04) and S% (.929) are excellent

Carolina Will Win If: Their coaching and goaltending are excellent. The Hurricanes are still the underdogs despite 99 points. Neither of their goalies might be capable of doing this. Petr Mrazek isn't the goalie Braden Holtby is, but he'll have to win the duel in nets. Will veteran Curtis McElhinney play? Perhaps. I don't think he can outplay Holtby, either. First year coach Rob Brind'Amour has his work cut out for him here.

Atlantic Division Boston Bruins (2) Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3)

Boston Will Win If: A) Brad Marchand keeps doing what he's doing and 2) Tukka Rask or Jaroslav Halak keep the high-flying Leafs offence at bay. Marchand had his first 100-point season of his career and will no doubt be the key man on offence for the Cubs. But the concern here is Rask, who had a very pedestrian regular season. He was able to appear in just 46 games, going 27-13-5, 2.48 and .912. Those numbers are his worst of the past four seasons. He might find himself riding the pine in favour of Halak.

Toronto Will Win If: They can stay on their feet and weather the storm, in simple terms. Goalie Fred Andersen has played 60-or more games in each of his three seasons with the Maple Leafs since coming over from the Ducks. That toll might be exposed in the next seven or fewer games. Four playoff years ago Andersen took Anaheim all the way to game seven of the conference finals against Chicago, who won it all that season. The next year, despite an early exit, he topped all netminders in GAA (1.41) and S% (.947) in the postseason. Okay, but how about last seasons' playoffs? Ah, his GAA was 3.76 and his S% was below .900. He's gotta be better than that, and against Boston Fred is surely going to face an onslaught of discs. The Leafs themselves were exposed as not-so-good sans Jake Gardiner, who missed 20 games in the regular season this past season. It's gonna be a hard-hitting series for sure. Toronto was only 8-7-3 in a stretch where Gardiner missed 18 games towards the end of the season. Jake Muzzin is coming back in the lineup. But is he 100%?

Pacific Divison San Jose Sharks (2) Vs. Vegas Golden Knights (3)

San Jose Will Win If: A) Erik Karlsson plays better and B) Martin Jones is Martin Jones. Erik scored only 3 goals this past season, and needs to play like he did back in the 2017 postseason with Ottawa. He missed 29 games in 2018/19 and scored just 3 goals in 53 contests. I wouldn't be concerned with goalie Martin Jones' play in the regular season. He's shown time and time again he's a different netminder in the spring. His postseason numbers are excellent: In 42 career playoff games, Martin is 22-18 with a 2.07 GAA and .926 S%

Vegas Will Win If: Their defense and goaltending withstand San Jose's potentially potent offence. San Jose finished tied for second with Calgary in goals for (289) by Western Conference teams. Vegas scored just 249 goals in the 2018/19 regular season. Plus, they gave up nearly that many (230). The loss of James Neal clearly hurt the Golden Knights. Jon Marchessault played all 82 games in the regular season, but had only 59 points for the team lead. Jon had 75 points the previous year. Also seeing his play drop from last year to this was goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. His S% went from .927 in 2017/18 to just .913 in 18/19. He was saddled with 61 games this season, so he might be mentally strained. Backup Malcolm Subban was just 8-10-2 in 21 games. He's in no position to step in.

Common Denominator: St. Louis And Las Vegas

"Expansion teams, won 8 postseason games their first year in the National Hockey League."

The great expansion of 1967/68 saw the NHL double in size from six teams to twelve. One of the new teams was the St. Louis Blues, who were coached by some chap named Scotty Bowman. They had Glenn Hall in net, plucked away from Chicago in the expansion draft.

The team itself was full of many of these castoffs, but Hall certainly was a steal. Amazingly enough, the Blues would be the third team he took all the way to the Stanley Cup finals. How long did it take Glenn to do that? Only 13 seasons. In 1961, he beat Montreal single-handily in the semi-finals and then nailed the door shut on Detroit (His old team) a round later. Just the type of goalie a new team needs.

Now, the Blues W-L-T record wasn't very good, 27-31-16. Put in perspective five of the Original Six teams (Boston, Chicago, Montreal, New York  and Toronto did better than that. Two other new teams topped it for good measure. But neither the Philadelphia Flyers or Los Angeles Kings would make the Stanley Cup finals that year.

Philadelphia, with their 31-32-11 record for...first place in the Western Conference (Home of all the newbies) got St. Louis in the first round of the playoffs. It was now three rounds to win for the Stanley Cup. Previously, it had been only two.

Red Berenson had led the Blues in scoring with just 51 points. Their team captain, btw, was none other than future legendary coach Al Arbour. Amazingly enough, he'd been to the Stanley Cup finals with three teams himself. And St. Louis would be the fourth.

It took seven games, but St. Louis had an upset. They stole it 3-1 in game 7 on the road. Minnesota was next, but this time, guess who had home ice advantage? St. Louis did. They needed it, too, as Ron Schock's double-OT winner in game seven sent the Blues into the finals against the Montreal Canadians.

Now, here's where it's not fair. An established team vs. a new team. A current greats vs. a bunch of "has beens"? St. Louis wasn't exactly the latter, but they were swept!

But then again, every game was close. One goal decided every game, in fact. Games one and three went into OT. Glenn Hall? He walked away with the playoff MVP (Conn Smythe Award). The team had nothing to be ashamed of.



50 years later, the Las Vegas Golden Knights were the one and only newbies in the NHL, which was now at 31 teams, if you can believe it. You know what team was the worst? Why the Golden Knights. Only, they didn't exactly play like that in 2017/18, did they?

They didn't.

How long did it take them to win their 27th game? Only 38 contests were needed for Las Vegas to get that. At the time, the Golden Knights were 27-9-2. Wow!

Soon, the expansion team won their 34th game of the season, a new National Hockey League record for first-year organizations. Vegas didn't stop there. When the smoke had cleared after 82 regular season games, the new kids were 51-24-7. 1st place in the Pacific. Third overall in the Western Conference. Hmmm...Where have I heard that one before?

When the playoffs started, Vegas rode a strong team effort to sweep the Los Angeles Kings in round #1. But here we go again. All four games were decided by one goal.



The San Jose Sharks was once an expansion team not that long ago. 1991/92 to be exact. Hey, Gary Bettman wasn't even around back then and the NHL was 75 years old. Not 101.

Getting back to it, no sweep here. The Sharks, coming off a sweep of their own of the Anaheim Ducks, stayed with the Knights. After losing the first game by a lopsided score of 7-0, they bounced back with some overtime magic to steal game two. The new guys were undaunted. They won an OT game of their own in the third contest, but couldn't get anything past Martin Jones in the fourth one. The 4-0 win by San Jose at home leveled this, 2-2 in games.

Here's where Las Vegas was expected to fold. But they held on to their nerves. A 4-0 lead was nearly erased, and the home team needed a Jonathan Marchessault empty net goal to prevail 5-3. The series then shifted back to San Jose and Marc Andre Fleury was through giving up goals to the Sharks. His team scored three, but Marc needed only one. The 3-0 win moved 'em into the Conference Finals. Winnipeg was up next!



So, do the wheels finally come off the chariot here? Just like it did in the third round for St. Louis 50 years ago? Could very well have. Game one went to the home team, the Jets.


If the new guys want to make it a series, Las Vegas will have to steal game two on the road. Coach Gerald Gallant will have to be a mastermind ala-Scotty Bowman. Nonetheless, years after the first expansion experiment produced the lovable Blues, the Knights are trying to write their own history. For now, they'll have to settle with a shared spot in NHL history for postseason wins by a first year expansion team.


References

Diamond, Dan. Total Stanley Cup: An Official Publication Of The National Hockey League. Toronto: Published in Canada by Total Sports Canada, 2000. Print.

McFarlane, Brian. Brian McFarlane's History Of Hockey. Sports Publishing Inc., 1997. Print.

Irvin, Dick. The Habs: An Oral History Of The Montreal Canadiens, 1940-1980. McClelland & Stewart, 1992. Print.

Maguire, Liam. What's The Score? Random House Canada, 2001. Print

“Official Site Of The National Hockey League.” NHL.com. The National Hockey League. Web. 13 May. 2018. <www.nhl.com/>.

Sports Reference LLC.  Hockey-Reference.com - Hockey Statistics and History. http://www.hockey-reference.com/. Web. 13 May. 2018.

Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation. Web. 13 May. 2018. <https://en.wikipedia.org>.

Showalter: Off The Hook!

For days now, as Toronto Blue Jays' fans like me celebrate their team's 5-2 win over Baltimore in the winner-take-all Wild Card game, the question still lingers: Why didn't Buck Showalter bring in his ace closer?

To tell you the truth, it might not have mattered. Toronto was going to find a way.

Let's look at a few key facts of the game:

1) The Orioles weren't hitting the Blue Jays' starter

Well, you can't win a baseball game without scoring a run, now can you? The Orioles were having all sorts of problems with Marcus Stroman, who was just zoned in. Baltimore did good to overcome Jose Bautista's early solo home run to stay in the game. Mark Trumbo trumped that with a two-run shot of his own in the top of the fourth. However, that proved to the Toronto's starter's one bad pitch. When he left after six inning of work, it was 2-2 (The Blue Jays tied it in the bottom of the fifth) and Baltimore managed just four hits (And no walks) off him in those six innings. That was all. The game stayed that way until Encanacion's three-run walk-off in extras. If the Orioles could have just gotten to Stroman (9-10), they might have had the game in the bag and perhaps not even need Zack Britton to warm up. Stroman's ERA in 2016? 4.37. His best ever earned run average in a full season was 3.65 in his rookie campaign of 2014. He's 24 years old. After this outing, despite just two earned runs, his postseason ERA is 3.91. You had to think the O's should have done more versus him!

2) The Orioles weren't hitting the relief corps of the Jays, either (*Groan*)

Stroman gave way to Brett Cecil, who started the seventh by getting Matt Wieters. Chris Davis, a lefty facing the lefty Cecil, coaxed a full-count walk off him. But that proved to be Baltimore's last base runner. Joe Biagini came in and fanned the next two batters. Davis was the O's last man to reach first. Jason Grilli, Roberto Osuna and Francisco Liriano came in and combined to retire the next 12 batters, meaning the Toronto bullpen went five innings, allowing not a run or a hit. Even if Britton had matched that, what was his team going to do against that bullpen?

3) Chris Tillman was pulled too soon

Okay, here's where you do fault Showalter. He sent out Chris Tillman to the hill to get the job done, and he was a better choice than the Jays decision of going with Stroman. Tillman was not only 16-6 in 2016, but 65-33 over the course of the last five seasons, so a proven winner. Although his ERA is 3.91 during that span, that's in large part due to it being 4.99 in 2015. Tillman has had seasons (So far) of his earned run average at 2.93 and 3.34, far better than Stroman.

Tillman gave up the early home run to Bautista in the second inning, after a 1-2-3 first. He also had a 1-2-3 third. He got through the fourth by allowing Toronto just a walk. So ahead 2-1 going into the bottom of the fifth, Tillman looked like he had it. And then the wheels came off the chariot.

Troy Tulowitzki flied out, and Tillman appeared to be safe. But then he gave up a double, another double, and a single. The score was tied at two and there was just one out. Showalter removed him, bringing in Mychal Givens, who got out of that via a double play.

However, with that, and the game essentially like game seven, it was going to be a long night for the Orioles' bullpen. Tillman had only walked one batter in 4 1/3 innings and fanned four.

4) The Orioles Bullpen Was Pretty Good Without Britton Pitching

Givens gave way to Donnie Hart after 2 1/3, who held 'em in check. Hart got the only batter to face him out. In came in Brad Brach, who won 10 games in 2016. You know, the guy that made my list of "Greatest Relief Seasons Of All Time?" Check out his first and second set of stats for 2016 (Albeit not final ones). Brach had a 1-2-3 eighth. Showing great confidence in him, Showalter let him pitch the ninth. Toronto looked like they were going to win it as Josh Donaldson led off with a double. Showalter then ordered Edwin Encarnacion walked intentionally, so Brach would face Bautista. Bautista fanned.

Darren O'Day was brought in to pitch and try to send this to extras. He did just that as he induced Russell Martin to hit into an inning-ending double play. The home team had now done that twice in the ballgame, missing out on two key opportunities to score important runs.

O'Day got through the 10th 1-2-3, as Baltimore kept hanging around. Brian Duensing came in to pitch the next inning, and got the only batter to face him on a strikeout. The game, however, would come to a sudden end.

Britton was being saved for a save situation by Baltimore, who's bullpen was nearly matching Toronto's. Ironically, it was one of their starters that lost the game. Ubaldo Jimenez hopped in, and the Blue Jays pounced on him. Devon Travis wasted no time and singled on a 1-1 pitch. Donaldson followed suit on the first pitch, Travis taking third. Encarnacion wasted no time himself. He played hero on the first pitch, smacking it out of here to win the game in dramatic fashion.

5) Bringing In Your Closer To Early Can Have Disastrous Consequences!

The Jays found that out. Roberto Osuna, their closer, who'd struggled as of late, pitched a 1-2-3 ninth in a non-save situation, of course. Now, that's about that should have been asked of him, or Britton for that matter. If there was a time to bring in Britton, it would have been in the Toronto half of that inning,

The start of the inning. Toronto nearly won it. But say Zack throws a 1-2-3 inning, how does that change the outcome when the team isn't hitting? So Britton gets them to the 10th, only to see his team get set down in order in that inning. Not without some drama.

The Jays (Foolishly) brought Osuna back out. He fell behind Chris Davis 2-1, then got a called strike on a very high pitch. On the 2-2, Bautista put the squeeze on Davis' fly. That, however, proved to be Osuna's last pitch. Roberto's shoulder had tightened. He'd been out there too long. Today's closer's are one inning guys. No more. Osuna appeared to be alright a few days later in game two of the ALDS vs. Texas, but we will see how this shoulder trouble plays out in the coming days.

In any event, if Showalter wasn't going to use Britton then, with the game on the line, why should he later? Point #4, perhaps?


References


Agsgdgfg01. "AL Wild Card [Toronto Blue Jays] vs [Baltimore Orioles] 2016.10.04." Online Video Clip. YouTube. YouTube, 05 Oct. 2016. Web. 08 Oct. 2016. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sSvUmRAQd0>

Kennedy, Brendan. "Is Osuna OK? Plus Other Fallout From Blue Jays Wild-Card Win." Thestar.com. The Toronto Star, 05 Oct. 2016. Web. 08 Oct. 2016. <https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/ 2016/10/05/is-osuna-ok-plus-other-fallout-from-blue-jays-wild-card-win.html>

Sports Reference LLC. Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Statistics and Information. http://www.baseball-reference.com/. Web. 08 Oct. 2016.