Stanley Cup Playoffs 2011: Eastern Conference Round 1

Washington (1) VS New York (8)

So Washington did their best NOT to finish first in the East. But, alas, Philly and Boston slumped, so they did just that.

Their reward this year? A playoffs against the Rangers.

Good news: They HAVE beaten the Rangers before

Great news: Ryan Callahan is out

Bad news: It was in seven games after trailing 3-1! SEVEN GAMES? Oh no!

Offence

Washington

Washington got it from Ovi, but not quite as in the past.

Ovechkin had, for him, and off year offensively. Just 85 points, and 32 goals. The good news was he was more committed to two way play, which will help this time around. Center Nick Backstrom was second on the team with 65 points. Semin has 54 points, but that was in only 65 games. Plus Brooks Laich had 48 points.

As for the blueline offence, Mike Green was hurt and played in only 49 games. Still, he got 24 points. If anything it was two defencemen who picked up the slack. Dennis Wideman had 40 points and John Carlson had 37 more. If these guys stay healthy, don’t be shorthanded! Wideman is nursing an injury, however.

The whole Capitals team wasn’t as explosive as before. They ranked 19^th in goals for per game (224).

New York

The Rangers themselves scored just 233 goals. Aside from the Caps, the only other Eastern Conference team (that qualified for postseason) to pot fewer this season was Montreal.

Add to that Ryan Callahan (Look, I'm not about to quote Clint Eastwood, okay?) is out. The Rangers will miss him, as he netted 23 goals and 48 points in just 60 games.

But picking up the slack, no doubt, as he has all year will be Duby, Brandon Dubinsky. He led the Rangers with 54 points in 77 games. And he wasn't alone. The always reliable Marian Gaborik had 48 points in just 62 games.

In addition to Dubinsky, there were three other pretty good centers:

Derek Stepan (45 points)

Artem Anisimov (44 points)

Brian Boyle (35 points)

Erik Christensen (27 points in only 63 games)

Great strength down the middle. Although, I'm not sure how much Christensen can help. No shootouts in the playoffs, remember.

Brandon Prust had 29 points from the port side of things. However, the Rangers acquired Polish Wojtek Wolski, who is the real threat from left, as he finished the year with 35 points in 73 games with the Rangers and Coyotes.

As for some blueline offence, another of the Staal brothers is here!

Marc Staal racked up 29 points in 77 games.

And there was the recently acquired Bryan McCabe 

Despite all that, I'm giving the edge to Washington because of Ovie's flare for the dramatic!

Edge: (slight) Washington

Defence

Washington

Conversely, the Capitals were fourth in the league in goals against per game (2.33).

Green is good at both ends of the ice despite a low +/- (6). Then there is Carlson, who was a plus 24. Wideman was a minus, but it should be noted he was the only defenceman on the Caps to play more than 33 games and post a minus. But, again, if he's not playing...

The stay at home corps consists of Karl Alzer, Scott Hannan, John Erskine, and probably the best of them, Jeff Schultz.

New York

The Blueshirt's blueline defence was led by Micheal Sauer, who posted a plus 20, which is good for a "stay-at-home" defenceman. Ryan McDonagh, despite injuries, posted a fine plus 16 in only 40 games.

Wolski was a plus 12 in his 37 games as a Ranger.

Edge: (slight) Washington

Goaltending

Washington

Ah, now for the Capitals real problem!

But I believe it has been corrected.

Washington sort of shuffled three goalies around. Here are their numbers:

GOALIE                               GP       GAA      W          L        OT

MICHAL NEUVIRTH              48         2.45      27         12         4               

SEMYON VARLAMOV            27         2.23      11           9         5              

BRADEN HOLTBY                 14         1.79      10            2         2          

Further:
                                                       SO     SV%

MICHAL NEUVIRTH                              4        .914

SEMYON VARLAMOV                            2        .924

BRADEN HOLTBY                                  2       .934

Okay, put ‘em all together, and that’s pretty good.

Problem is, by themselves, no one by themselves seems enough. Varlamov has some playoffs experience ands a good save percentage, but he didn’t play much. Skate rust. Holtby was very impressive in only 14 games but has never played in the playoffs before (at the NHL level, anyway).

So I guess it comes down to Neuvirth. But, Boudreau has a short tolerance. He could be ushered out and replaced with Semyon or Braden (remember Ken Dryden in ’71?) in a finger snap.

New York

Mr Lundqvist has been the man where "The Puck Stops Here!"

The Iron Man in front of the square iron notched his sixth straight 30 win season (All with New York). The negative?

He was forth in the league losses (27). Other than that, look out! 36 wins (6th in the league), 2.28 GAA (7th) .923 S% (7th) 11 SO (1st), 68 GP (5th).

Anything more need to be said?

And his backup, Biron, is no stranger to the playoffs if needs be. Three seasons ago, he led the Flyers to the Eastern Conference Finals.

His W-L-OT record wasn't great (8-6-0), but he had a GAA of 2.13 and a S% of .923

Edge: (Neither Wide Nor Slight) New York

Prediction: Washington in six

Philadelphia (2) vs Buffalo (7)

Philly slipped a little and almost lost the division crown to Pittsburgh, while Buffalo surged at the end to hold off Carolina and Toronto from nudging in. They also kept the Rangers in eighth place.

Offence

Philadelphia

Nearly SEVEN Flyers scored 20 or more goals this season. What a balanced attack.

Claude Giroux paced all of them with 76 points, while Jeff Carter lit the lamp 36 times.

Curiously, it was the team’s two right wingers (Giroux and Danny Briere) then two centers (Carter and Mike Richards) who were the top four.

Then if you can believe it, two left wingers (Ville Leino and Scott Hartnell) who came in 5th and 6th. Some nice groupings. Actually, here’s where the, “Two wingers, two centers, two wingers”, pairings ends, as a third left winger James Van Riemsdyk, was seventh on the team in scoring.

If you’re wondering who among those didn’t score twenty, it’s Leino, the left winger. But what’s wrong with 54 points from the port side?

Two other players: Winger Nikolai Zherdev (16 goals) and Andres Nodl (11 goals in 67 games) should be watched. As should last year's Flyer killer, Chris Versteeg!

Then, amazingly, four defencemen round out the top ten (and 11) in team scoring.

Matt Carle, look at his stat line: 1 goal 39 assists, 40 points. You know, he must be kicking himself for scoring that one goal. He might have set a record for most points in a season without scoring a goal! In any case, he needn’t apologize. No Flyer defenceman scored more than 8 goals.

But note the consistency:

Kimmo Timonen: 6 goals, 31 assists

Andrej Meszaros: 8 goals, 24 assists

Chris Pronger: 4 goals, 21 assists (in only 50 games)

An offence to be reckoned with.

Buffalo

The Sabers were a little more defensive minded than Philly. Even so, 11 Sabers scored 10 or more goal. And the Flyers actually scored just 14 more goals than the Sabers (259 -245)

Thomas Vanek lead the Sabers with 32-41-73. Drew Stafford might have lead the team had he not missed 20 games. Even so, his 31 goals and 52 points is mighty good.

Center Derrek Roy also might have led the Sabers in scoring had he not been hurt in December. He’s kinda in the Crosby boat as there is talk of him returning. For what it is worth, he averaged a point a game, 35 points in 35 games before the injury.

But, like the Pens, they had found a way to fill the void, somewhat.

What I like about the Sabers is they had 5 players who can play center with good numbers. In addition to Roy, your have

Tim Connolly 13-29-42

Paul Gaustad 12-19-31

Nathan Gerbe 16-15-31 (64 games)

Jochem Hecht 12-17-29 (67 games)

Cody McCormick 8-12-20

What does that mean? It means Lindy Ruff (God! Is he STILL coaching Buffalo?) can mix and match with different line combos. Sure will be interesting to see!

Tyler Myers, Jordan Leopold, Andrej Sekera and Steve Montador all recorded 26 or more points from the blueline.

Edge: (Slight) Philadelphia

Defence

Philadelphia

As a bonus, Jeff Carter was a plus 27.

I’m not 100% sure if Pronger is going to play in the first game, but it is a good bet than he’ll play game 2 onwards. He has experience galore! Think of him as today’s Larry Robinson.

And he’s got some nice pairings. Carle may have scored only one goal, but was a plus 30, as was Meszaros. Braydon Coburn, a stay-at-home defenceman was a plus 15.

Buffalo

A new guy to Buffalo was Mike Weber, as he set career marks in everything. This will be his first ever playoffs. But his defence was good this regular season.

The others have pretty much been to the playoffs before. Shaone Morrisonn is probably hoping to have better luck in the postseason with Buffalo than he did with Washington.

Montador led the team with a plus 16. Weber and Sekera were +11 and +13 respectively.

Edge (Slight) Philadelphia

Goaltending

Philadelphia

The Flyers unveiled a new kid this year: Sergi Bobrovsky. In 54 games, he performed admirably: 28-13-8 to go along with .915 and 2.59. Now might be a good time for him to do something he didn’t do this year. He didn’t record a shutout! This will, needless to say, be his first ever NHL playoffs.

Brain Boucher played a-plenty during the regular season. In 34 games, he posted 18 wins and 4 OT losses. His GAA and S% were actually lower than Bobrovsky, 2.42 and .916. He has been around a while. It is interesting to note that he has a losing record lifetime in the regular season (like Dwayne Rolson), with a 119-131-44 record. But strangely, he has a winning record in the playoffs, 17-14. I have a feeling that if Brobrovsky falters, he’ll be put in without a second thought.

Buffalo

The Sabers, meanwhile look like they have the second coming of Dominik Hasek in Ryan Miller. That Olympic performance in 2010 will never be forgotten. He followed it up with an early playoff loss to Boston, however, and now he gets his chance for redemption.

His record was not as good as in 2009/2010, but once again he was the war horse. Appearing in 66 games, he won 34 and only five goalies faced more shots. He is one of those goalies, statistics aside, that “gets in shooters heads”. You know you need to set up just right to get a goal on him. Otherwise, hope for a tip-in or a rebound. And he has some great playoff performances already in his career. Back in 2006, he took the Sabers to within a game of the Stanley Cup Finals.

Edge (Wide) Buffalo

Prediction: Philadelphia in six.

Boston (3) vs Montreal (6)

Here we go again, is all I can say.

They’ve met 32 time in the playoffs with the Habs holding an edge of 24 to 8.

Montreal wants to win the series and kill Chara.

Neither will prove easy.

Offense

Boston

Again, we see a very balanced attack as the Bruins had TWELVE players with 10 or more goals. Having said  that, the Cubs only ended up with 246 goals. Far more than Montreal, though.

Two players, Milan Lucic and David Krejci tied for the team lead in points with 62.

The rest?

Patrice Bergeron (22-35-57)

Nathan Horton (26-27-53)

Mark Recchi (is he still playing?) (14-34-48)

Brad Marchand (21-20-41)

Michael Ryder (18-23-41)

Greg Campbell (13-16-29)

Blake Wheeler (11-16-27 in only 58 games)

Tyler Seguin (11-11-22)

Shawn Thornton (10-10-20)

For blueliners we have the guy Habs fans hate: Zedeno Chara. But the problem is, Montreal will hate him for other reasons. Namely, his offence (14-30-44), his defence. And he hits!

Dennis Seidenberg had 7 goals and 25 assists from the point.

The new guy, Thomas Kaberle, is finally back to the postseason. Acquired in trade from Toronto, he posted 47 points in 82 games. However, I left him for last because he tailed off a bit after the trade. Here:

2010/11

Toronto 58 GP 3G 35A 38 PTS

Boston 24 GP 1G 8A 9 PTS

Kabbi's gotta play like he did in Toronto.

Montreal

The Canadians scored just 216 goals this season, which is the lowest of any team that qualified for the postseason.

Even so (he we go again!) 8 of their players scored 11 or more goals and David Desharnais scored 8 in only 43 games.

Okay, ready?

Tomas Plekanec (22-35-57)
Michael Cammalleri (19-28-47)
Brain Gionta (29-17-46)
Andrei Kostitsyn (20-25-45)
PK Subban (14-24-38)
Benoit Pouliot (13-17-30)
Mathienu Darche (12-14-26)
Jeff Halpern (11-15-26)
Max Pacioretty (14-10-24)

Pacioretty, of course, was given a concussion by Zedeno Chara, and it is unknown when he will return. Still that will make an interesting subplot to this series. Max's numbers are impressive when you consider he played in only 37 games.

In addition to Subban, you have other defencemen that put up numbers for the Flying Frenchmen. Roman Hamrlik with 34 points and James Wisiewski with 30 in 43 games.

Edge: (Wide) Boston

Defence

Boston

Chara led the way with a +33. It's worth noting that Adam McQuaid was a plus 30 in only 67 games.

I should also mention, before going any further that some of the forwards were good on the +/-. Lucic, the team's (tied for) leader in points, posted a plus 28, which isn't even tops among forwards. Nope, that goes to Horton with +29.

Back to defencmen. Andrew Ference posted a fine +22 in only 70 games and Johnny Boychuk, always steady, was a plus 15 in 69 games.

Back to Kaberle.

He was a minus (-2) in Toronto, but he improved to plus 6 in 24 games. So I guess, give defence, take offense from Thomas!

Overall, Boston permitted just 195 goals.

Montreal

A notch below Boston, despite the numbers. Most importantly, Montreal allowed 209 goals against. That's fifth in the Eastern Conference among the eight that are competing for Lord Stanley's mug. But, how much more is that than Boston gave up?

Jaroslav Spacek led Montreal with a plus 9 rating in only 59 games.

I should bring up PK Subban, the young kid who had a great postseason last year. This year, he had a good season on offence, as mentioned earlier. His defence was a little erratic to say the least, as he finished with a minus (-8). Now, he is capable of playing good defence. It's just a question, which PK will show up? Consistent or erratic? They need the former.

Hamrik and Wisniewski are better than average. And of course, I should mention Hal Gill, who always seems to bring his best to the big stage in hockey. In the last three years, his teams have gone at least as far as the Conference Finals.

Edge: (Slight) Boston

Goaltending

Boston

Which do you prefer? Thomas or Rask? Both played often enough to be ready for the postseason. Two years ago, Boston went with Thomas in the postseason, and Rask didn't play a game. Last year, Raask played the postseason and Thomas didn't play in a game.

Tim Thomas had a breakout year as he led the NHL with a goals against average of 2.00. He led the league in S% with a .938 mark. He also won 35 games despite appearing in only 57 games, and was second in the league in shutouts with 9. In the 2009 playoffs, he played very, very well.

Then there is Tuuka Rask, who made it into 29 games himself, but posted a lossing record. It was a bit of a comedown from last season. But the amount of games played suggest that, if Thomas falters, we might just see him against the Habs. Here are his numbers: 

Montreal

If Carey Price isn't tired now, he'll never be. He's gotta feel stronger than the iron that's in the frame of the net. Appearing in 72 games, he won 38 to lead the league, faced the second most shots (2,147), posted a .923 S% and recorded 8 shutouts.

If it matters for postseason experiece, he did face the Bruins three seasons ago, and helped the Habs come out on top in seven games. Since then, though, he has played in just 8 postseason games, failing to record a win in any of them (to be fair, some of them were relief appearances, he was 0-5). Will he play like that? Or will he play like he did this season and three years ago against the Bruins?

Backup Alex Auld (I call him AA) is playing on his eighth team in nine years. He hasn't played in a postseason game since before the strike. His numbers weren't bad (6-2-2, 2.64, .914) but I feel it would be a risk to play him.

Then again, if Price falters or gets hurt...

Edge: (none) I'm calling this even!

Prediction: Boston in seven.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs Tampa Bay Lighting (5)

Pittsburgh’s Record the last 5 years:

2006/07 47W 24L 11OT 105 PTS

2007/08 47W 27L 8OT 102 PTS

2008/09 45W 28L 9OT 99PTS

2009/10 47W 28L 7OT 101PTS

2010/11 49W 25L 8OT 108 PTS

Pittsburgh's record on January 5th (The day Crosby went down): 26-12-3 for 55 points.

Pittsburgh's record the rest of the season sans Crosby 23-12-5 for 51 points.

Pittsburgh's record on Feb 4, 2011 (The day Malkin went down): 34-15-4

Pittsburgh's record the rest of the season sans Malkin: 15-10-4

Pittsburgh's record in the last 16 games of the season: 12-4-0

You read that correctly!

Yes, despite the loss of Crosby (41 games misses), Malkin (39 games missed), Staal (40 games missed) the Pens won more games this season then any other since 1995/96 (I think their current owner had something to do with that) and had more points in this season than in any other since 1992/93. Again, I think the owner (now) had something to do with that.

So amazing what they have pulled off this year. The Pens have been able to adapt!

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay returns to the playoffs for the first time in years. And Stamkos test the postseason waters for the first time!

This series brings together two of my favourite goalies: Dwayne Rolson And Marc Andre Fleury

Offence

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is obviously lacking their two best playmakers. Yet, the Pens have found ways to pick up the slack. Either by trades or by callups.

Two of the players the Pens acquired at the deadline were Alex Kovalev and Chris Neal. SO FAR, I’d say they haven’t contributed much. But they both bring experience and savy to this team. Look for them to contribute. Neal, despite his slump, still finished with 45 points. Kovalev, playing most of the season with a shallow offensive Ottawa team, had 34 points.

And then there are the other Pens.

Many have called this Chris Letang breakthrough year. He picked the right year to. Playing in ALL 82 games, he scored only 8 goals but garnered 42 assists. Plus he played some great defence (more on that later).

Chris Kunitz missed 16 games and still got 48 points. Tyler Kennedy tacked up 45 and Pascual Dupius had 37.

And tremendous two way man from Thunder Bay, Jordan Staal, who missed the first half of the season, had perhaps his best season despite all that. He averaged almost a point per game and showed what many have long suspected: if he got more ice team, we’d all see how good he REALLY is. Crosby and Malkin absence gave him that chance, ironically. He averaged 21:21 ice time this year, a career high.

Tampa Bay

St Louis, Stamkos, Lecavalier.

The Big Three

Tough to stop all three.

Stamkos may have slumped at the end of the years. Hey, it happens to all of these “streaky” scorers. He finished with 99 points, 45 of them goals. Lets not forget, 2009/10, he tied Crosby for the league lead in goals with 51. This will be his first taste of post season. I expect him to be a little nervous, but watch: he will overcome it.

Lecavalier HAS been their before. In fact, he was there back in 2004 when Tampa Bay won it all. He finished with 54 points as he had some injuries himself. Lately, though, he back to “Same Old” Vinny as he scored five goals in his last four games.

St Louis is the most feared. He just missed 100 points (99 pts for 2nd most this season) and finished second in the league with 68 assist.

And there were others.

Teddy Purcell (Now it’s the big four, eh?) was uninjured (he missed just one game) and effective as the second line right winger: 17 goals and 34 assists.

Two other players need to mentioned right now, because they both have an interesting plot to this series.

First is Simon Gagne. He’s faced the Pens in the past (2008, 2009) and then last year, helped the underdog Flyers go all the way to the Stanley Cup finals and get within two games of the cup. This year, despite some injuries, he racked up 40 points in 63 games. I can’t imagine he won’t be reeved up to face Pittsburgh for the third time in four years.

Another who should be also up for this is Ryan Malone. Born and bred and Pittsburgh, not to mention he is the son of . He’s another good left winger, notching 38 points in only 54 games. This will be his first playoff series since leaving the Pens after 2008.

Some more?

You have former Toronto Maple Leaf, Dominic Moore as the teams third line center. And he managed a respectable 32 points in 77 games. Another guy to look out for is Steve Dowie. Like others in this series, he had a bit of a banged up year (just 57 games played) but contributed (32 points). Sean Bergenheim scored 14 goals for third on the team among left wingers.

The team’s top blue line point getter would be Brett Clark, with 31 points.

The guy to watch on the Lightning Defence will be Victor Hedman. After putting out Sid Crosby with a check into the glass on Jan 5, he finished with 26 points. Only three were goals, though.

Edge: (slightly) Tampa Bay

Defence

Pittsburgh

So Letang had people talking about a Norris Trophy candidate. No one gets talked about that without playing at your own end. Letang was joined this year by Paul Martin, who really fit in well with the Pens.
Ben Lovejoy missed 35 games, but when he could play, he played often, and effective. Zbynek (how do you pronounce that? Anyone?) Michalek also contributed.
And the other defenceman aren’t to shabby either.

Brooks Orpik, despite a broken toe earlier in the season, has returned and made solid contribution

Deryk Engelland and Matts Niskanen were both minuses, but I believe they were better than the plus minus stats indicate.

Notice, that’s seven defenceman who played more than half the season. So the Pens can even overcome any injury to any one of the above.

Did I mention that the Pens allowed 199 goals this season?

Tampa Bay

Tampa lacks that one defencemen that sticks out. They also are behind the Pens in defencesive defenceman.
Clark and Hedman are fine defenceman, as is another former Leaf, Pavel Kubina.

Randy Jones and Mike Lundin and former Canuck Mattis Ohlund were the other healthy ones. None are great statistically but Ohlund has postseason experience and that should help.

There were other defenceman in and out of the lineup due to injuries. Among them are Marc-Andre Bergeron (23 games), Eric Brewer (22 games) and Matt Smaby (32 games).

Looking at the team, they employed 11 defenceman.

6 were a minus.

Edge: (wide) Pittsburgh

Goaltending

Pittsburgh

After a slow start, Mark Andre Fleury got better and better as the season went on. His record was 1-6-0 at one point, but that must have made him feel that he had a point to prove. And he sure did. One of the reasons the Pens finished so strong in how Fleury would steal games for the Pens. I remember a game he lost, where he played great. On Jan he faced the Capitals in a game the Pens would ultiamtly lose, 1-0. But you could see it. Out of the net, staring Alex the Great down. Confidence!

When Fleury slumped out of the gate, Brent Johnson stepped in and probably pushed Mark to trump him. Whenever the Pens needed him to come in, he seemed to be ready for the challenge. Plus, he does have some playoff experience.

Tampa Bay

Dwayne Roloson started this year on Long Island, and was traded to Tampa Bay. His record with the Lightning was 18-12-4 and he tossed in 4 shutouts. At 41, he is playing in his first playoffs since leading the Edmonton Oilers to the Stanley Cup finals in 2006. The long playoff layoff could hurt him.

He finished the year with a losing record (24-25-5) and was 8th in the league in losses, and even eight in the league in PIM by a goalie (8).

Given his age, we might see some action from Dan Ellis or even Mike Smith. Both posted winning records, but had GAA close to 3.

Edge: (Wide) Pittsburgh

Prediction: Pittsburgh in seven games.