Thursday, April 15, 2010

Playoff Predictions Part 2

And now for the other playoff match ups. Lets look at what to watch for and who's going to win.

Philadelphia vs New Jersey

New Jersey added Ilya Kovalchuck, although it remains to be seen what he will do in the playoffs. His previous experience in 2007 was forgettable. He is certainly a player New Jersey needs, although given Devil's style of play you really have to wonder if he can be the same player in the playoffs that he was in the regular season, particulary with Atlanta. In New Jersey he's been forced to play more two-way, which takes away from his offence.

Zach Parise (82 points) Travis Zajac (67 points) , Jamie Langenbrunner and Patrick Ellias provide the rest of the offence for New Jersey, which did, if it matters, lose five of the six regular season games against the Flyers.

The Devils, as always were among the teams permitting the fewest goals (Actually, they gave up just 191 goals this year, the only team to allow less than 200). Colin White, Martin Skoula and Bryce Salvador and big and mobile and should provide the shutdown defence which New Jersey had employed for many years now.

As for goaltending, Martin Brodeur cannot be overlooked in any playoff series. Like all greats, he has the ability to steal not only games but entire series. This year has marked another campaign of a tremendous workload (77 games) and wins (45, to lead the league). One may have to wonder about that, however. At this point in his career (Marty is a month shy of his 38th birthday), with the amount of games played in his career (1076 regular season games plus another 177 postseason games played) if it's starting to catch up with him. Throwing away the 2008/09 season when he was injured, Brodeur has played 78, 77 and 77 games in goal the last three healthy seasons.

His performance in the postseason since the Devils 2003 Stanley Cup, while very good, hasn't really come close to matching that. And the Devils have lost in either the first or second round in all of the five seasons since. Is this a sign of decline and/or wear and tear on both Martin and his mates? It could very well be. Still, I look at Brodeur as someone you can count on the postseason to at least give his team a very good chance to win pretty much every game he plays. Don't expect poor Yann Denis (the backup for all of 12 games) to see much, if any, action.

As for Philadelphia, it was a year of inconsistent play, which if it continues will lead to a quick dismissal here.

The Flyers, though have a spread offence to compliment steady defence. As a team, they allowed just 225 goals (below league average of 233, but actually tied for 14th overall), but "only" scored 236 themselves. So they can expect a lot of low scoring games against Jersey. As for the offence, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Chris Pronger and Danny Briere provided the offence, which was actually 10th in the league.

The defence of Matt Carle, Pronger and Kimmo Timonen will try to stop the Devils. The key here is going to be stopping the Devils big guns, namely Kovalchuck, but also stepping up offensively. All three are capable.

The big problem for Philadelphia is in net. Here is where the Devils have the edge by a wide margin. With Ray Emery and Michael Leighton out with injures, the Flyers are forced to go with Brain Boucher. For those old enough to remember, this was the guy who took Philly to game 7 of the conference finals against Jersey way back in 2000! This year has been tough on him. He actually played more games than both Emery and Leighton. But here are there respected records: (Wins/Losses/OTL/GAA/S%):

Emery 16 11 1 2.64 .905

Leighton 16 5 2 2.48 .918

Boucher 9 18 3 2.76 .899

Gotta call some miracle cure, eh? If it matters, back in 2000, Brian was excellent in the postseason, going 11-7 with a low GAA (2.03). Since then, he has played four postseasons games. He's been a "good-goaltender-on-some-bad-teams" since. Can he dig back for the years? I think not.

I should mention that I added this series prediction after game one was played (2-1 Flyers win), Boucher was great. Can he be great for the next 3 to 6 games? Can he outplay Brodeur consistently? You tell me, based on what you've read.

Prediction: Devils in six games.

Boston vs Buffalo

Fresh off a splendid performance at the Olympics Ryan Miller is ready for another postseason, although it will be his first in three seasons. He's twice taken the Sabers to the conference finals and has played well in the three seasons since despite the Sabers twice missing the postseason.

So, they're back and looking for a third conference finals. Can they do it? There is the matter of the Bruins.

The Sabers face a team that is missing Marc Savard, who averaged nearly a point a game for 41 contests. The Bruins had a very weak offence, so Savard's absence will be a factor. Of all the teams in the postseason, Boston scored the fewest amount of goals (200). Conversely, they also permitted just 206.

A look at the Bruins reveals a good depth of talent, however. Patrice Bergeron led the Cubs with just 52 points, but he was joined by another center, David Krejci with that total. Also providing offence is towering (6-9) D- Man, Z Man, Zdeno Chara (Good defender, too. He should be the power forward on the Celtics), ageless and going strong FOREVER, Mark Recchi and Marco Sturm (22 goals).

Goaltending is the Bruins strong point. While no one is saying that Tuukka Rask is in Miller's class, he did lead the NHL in GAA with a minuscule 1.97. His save percentage of .931, also lead the loop. Miller's save percentage of .929 looks better when you consider that he played in 69 games compared to Rask's 45. I give Miller the edge also because of Rask's lack of postseason play at the NHL level. I say "edge" because Rask has put up good numbers in the AHL playoffs, but this is going to be a HUGE step for him to take.

Backup is Tim Thomas, who had an off year. One, however must look at his previous postseasons for serious consideration this year. He posted a 7-4 record with a 1.85 GAA last postseason and has now twice played in a seventh game in the spring. If Rask falters, look for Tim to make an appearance.

As for the Sabers, they allowed about the same number of goals (207) as the Bruins, but also scored 35 more, (235). Miller, we shall come back to. The offence is lead by Derek Roy (69 points), Tim Connolly, Jason Pomenville and Thomas Vaneck (28 goals). The thing about Roy is that he is small (5-9), so not really build for the postseason. But if size is the problem, then 6-8 defenceman Tyler Myers can help, providing 48 points plus some solid D.

Helping out on defence in front of Miller, in addition to Myers, is Henrick Tallender and Toni Lydman. Miller may not need much help. Watching him in the Olympics, particularly against Canada, you got the impression that he is more than capable of stealing games, if not entire series from the opposition.

Prediction: Buffalo in six games

Vancouver vs Los Angeles

Another surprise in the post season is the Kings. And they didn't "just" get there. They GOT there. For just the third time in their franchise history, the Crowned ones posted 100 points. Plus, they also tied a team record with 46 wins, enough to get them into the postseason for the first time since 2002.

Leading the way for the Kings is center Anze Kopitar, who posted career highs in pretty much everything. With a team leading 81 points, K has improved in every season since being drafted by Los Angeles. Providing support were Drew Doughty, Dustin Brown (24 goals) plus Oiler but eventually turned King (You thinking what I'm thinking?) Ryan Smyth (22 goals). Rounding out the offence is Alexander Frolov, Jarrett Stoll, Michael Hanzeus and Wayne Simmons.

What is interesting about the above is Brown, Smyth and Frolov are ALL left-wingers! In addition to Kopitar, the centers are Stoll and Frolov. It will be interesting to see how the Canucks deal with these portsiders.

Defence-wise you have Jack Johnson and Rob Scuderi (very, very good with the Pens in last two post seasons). You also have Matt Green who is tall and strong.

In goal is one of the King's biggest assets: Jonathan Quick. Figure of speech, but the guy has QUICKly risen up the ranks of goaltenders. Look at his games played the last three seasons: 3, 44, 72. He also set a Kings record with 39 wins. Note to myself...USA is going to be loaded in goal in the 2014 games. Jonathan won just 3 of his last 14 decisions down the stretch, however, and needs to regain his earlier form. Postseason-wise, he has just one AHL game on his record, and you can bet Vancouver will throw everything they have at him.

And what does Vancouver have. Oh, a little of everything. An Olympic goalie hero, an Art Ross winner, a lot of Hart, a pair of amazing twins. Alright, alright. Some of the above are the same.

You look at this 'nucks team and have to wonder if we are looking at the best ever edition. I'll say this: it's the best ever edition of Henrik Sedin. Isn't it just great that a player on a Canadian team, no wait, a Canuck(!) wins the scoring title? No offence to COM (That's Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin) but if they keep winning it, I'm going to start betting on all three winning it each year. And why not, one of them would have to, so how can I lose?

Getting back to it, Sedin had a career year. Actually, BOTH Sedins had a career year. Henrik had 112 points, but lets not forget about brother Daniel. Yup, 85 points, but in just 63 games. Ryan Kessler, Alexandre Burrows (Is he working his way up on the whiners scale after that spat with referee Stephane Auger?), Mikael Samuelsson and Mason Raymond were a big reason the Canucks tallied 272 goals this season.

The defence was better than average, but it also had some pop to it offensively. Christian Ehrhoff and the other Alexander (Edler) each had more than 40 points. Then there is Sami Salo, who can play at both ends.

Goaltending? This goes a LONG way for the 'nucks. Roberto Luongo. Now he has some Olympic experience under his belt, which will help him down the (playoff) road. This year was another typical season for him: 50 + games played for the eight straight season (68), 30 + wins for the fifth straight season (40), .910 + save percentage for the ninth straight season (.913), and 4 + shutouts for the ninth straight season (4).

His playoff performances have been either very good or great the last two seasons. In 2008, he took Vancouver to the second round with a 5-7 record, 1.77 GAA plus a .941 S%. Last year, despite faltering a bit agains Chicago, Roberto went 6-4, with a 2.52 GAA and a .914 S%. More recently, as in last February during those all important, edge of your seat games, he took over from Marty Brodeur and posted these numbers:

5 wins
0 losses
1.75 GAA
.927 S%

So before Sid and his mates lowered the boom on USA (and everybody else), Luongo manned the fort admirably. I look for this to continue in not only this series, but in this playoff years. Luongo is like Marc Andre Fleury: the more experience his gets, the better he plays. Like Brodeur, he's the unquestioned numero une goalie.

Prediction: Vancouver in six games

Chicago vs Nashville

Still searching for their first ever playoff series win, the Preds come in with 47 wins and 100 points. This years edition had exactly 225 goals for and...225 goals against, both below league average.

Offensively, Nashville was led by Patric Hornqvist. Just in his second NHL season, he netted 30 goals and 51 points for a club lead in red lights. At 5'11, it remains to be seen if the right winger can withstand the playoff grind. Helping out are Steve Sullivan (remember the big trade of '97 where the Leafs parted ways with Gilmour? Sully was one of players the Leafs got), also with 51 points, Martin Erat, vetran center Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont.

The defence included some offence from Olympian Shea Webber (43 points) and Ryan Suter (37 points). Dan Hamhuis and Cody Franson provided some more strickly defencive orientation.

The series promises to pit two Fins goalies against each other. Pekka Rinne was the number one goalie for Nash, with a 32, 16, 5, 2.53 and .911. None of those numbers look that good, but a closer look reveals that he was 6th in the league in GAA last year. This year Pekka was third in the league in shutouts with 7, following up on another 7 from the preceeding year. Playoff experience? NHL, none, AHL some. In 24 postseason games in the Amercian Hockey League, Rinne was .500 (12-12) GAA of 2.78, not quite what is needed at NHL level. It goes without saying that he will be tested by the tremendous offensive depth of the Hawks. Capable backup Dan Ellis played enough in the last three seasons, and even the 2008 postseason, to be ready if needed.

As for the Chi Hawks (52-22-8), where to begin? Offence or defence? They've got it both ways.

I always begin with the red light contributions. With 271 goals for, the Blackhawks were third overall in goals for, just one behind Vancouver, who they could very well face again this year. Winger Patrick Kane led the team with 30 goals and 88 points, followed by D-man Duncan Keith with 69 points. Then you have Jonathan Towes (68 points and fresh off the euphoria of leading Canada in points last February), the other Patrick, Sharpe (66 points), the vetran Marian Hossa (What? Another team, another Stanley Cup final, perhaps?), underrated Kris Versteeg and Troy Brouwer. Kane, Hossa, Versteeg and Brouwer, ALL right wingers! You know you're facing offensive depth when they have still ANOTHER right winger (Dustin Byfuglien) with 17 goals as well.

So enough with the offense! What about the D. Few problems there. In addition to Keith, you have Brian Campbell and Brent Seabrook (6-3, with 30 points). None of these players stick out defencively, but combined with some good supporting cast, you don't get much better defencively as a team.

Then there is the goaltending, Antti Niemi (the other Finland goaltender) and Cristobal (Crystal Ball) Huet. Each won 26 games, but Niemi they're going with becuase of his GAA, 2.25 (4th in the league) and shutouts, 7 (good enough for third to tie Rinne). He has no postseason experience at the NHL level and only 2 games (and a 3.65 GAA) at the AHL level. This will be a test for him to see if he can get it done. If he can't Huet will step in. With a lifetime goals against average of 2.46, only 21 goalies in league history have lower GAAs. Cristobal has yet to step it up in the postseason, posting a record of 6 wins and 10 losses in three years worth of postseason experience. With this team in front of him, though, again, he might not need to if he's called upon.

Prediction: Chicago in five games.


References


"Official Site Of The National Hockey League." NHL.com. The National Hockey League, n.d. Web. 15 Apr. 2010. <http://www.nhl.com/>.

Sports Reference LLC. Hockey-Reference.com - Hockey Statistics and History. http://www.hockey-reference.com/. Web. 15 April. 2010.

1 comment:

  1. Scott,
    Have enjoyed your hockey blogs immensely. Your knowledge of the sport would make you a natural as a Hockey Hall of Fame employee.

    Are you planning to comment on other sports in the future? I would be interested in a blog on the talented but temperamental Johnny Mac since I will be attending an exhibition match between him and Jim Courier. What about some of his classic outbursts?

    A Stuart Appleby fan

    ReplyDelete