Thursday, April 11, 2019

NHL Playoffs, Round 1, Part B

Western Conference Calgary Flames (1) Vs. Colorado Avalanche (8)

Calgary Will Win If: A) Their youth and experience comes through, and B) Their goaltending holds up! The Flames will look to players like Johhny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuck to keep the Avs back on their heels. However, the goaltending tandem of David Rittich and Mike Smith must make the key saves in goal. Neither was especially good in the regular season. James Neal, who has played in the Stanley Cup Finals the last two years with two different teams, needs to regain his playoff form. He struggled through a disappointing regular season (7-12-19). However, the playoffs are where Neal has shined in the past (30 goals and 53 points in his last 93 postseason contests). Now is the time for him to come through.

Colorado Will Win If: A) "The Big Three" comes through and B) Their goaltending is better than Calgary. The names MacKinnon, Rantenen and Landeskog had 75-or more points to go along with 31, 34, and 41 goals respectively. But the big question is the goaltending. I gotta believe the Avalanche are going with Phillip Grubauer, who sipped from the Stanley Cup as Braden Holtby's backup last year on the Capitals. Phillip was 18-9-5 in the regular season. Speaking of Holtby and Washington...

Eastern Conference Washington Capitals (2) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (7)

Washington Will Win If: They play like they did down the stretch this year and throughout the playoffs last season. Only four points seperated these two teams, but Washington has the edge, although it's easy to have a let-down the year after you won the Cup. But they have Ovechkin and his 51 goals this year. How about Holtby the excellent goalie? Okay, so what if his regular season numbers weren't good this year? They weren't good last season, and you all saw what happened in the playoffs! Braden brings together a 45-37 record in the playoffs. His GAA (2.04) and S% (.929) are excellent

Carolina Will Win If: Their coaching and goaltending are excellent. The Hurricanes are still the underdogs despite 99 points. Neither of their goalies might be capable of doing this. Petr Mrazek isn't the goalie Braden Holtby is, but he'll have to win the duel in nets. Will veteran Curtis McElhinney play? Perhaps. I don't think he can outplay Holtby, either. First year coach Rob Brind'Amour has his work cut out for him here.

Atlantic Division Boston Bruins (2) Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3)

Boston Will Win If: A) Brad Marchand keeps doing what he's doing and 2) Tukka Rask or Jaroslav Halak keep the high-flying Leafs offence at bay. Marchand had his first 100-point season of his career and will no doubt be the key man on offence for the Cubs. But the concern here is Rask, who had a very pedestrian regular season. He was able to appear in just 46 games, going 27-13-5, 2.48 and .912. Those numbers are his worst of the past four seasons. He might find himself riding the pine in favour of Halak.

Toronto Will Win If: They can stay on their feet and weather the storm, in simple terms. Goalie Fred Andersen has played 60-or more games in each of his three seasons with the Maple Leafs since coming over from the Ducks. That toll might be exposed in the next seven or fewer games. Four playoff years ago Andersen took Anaheim all the way to game seven of the conference finals against Chicago, who won it all that season. The next year, despite an early exit, he topped all netminders in GAA (1.41) and S% (.947) in the postseason. Okay, but how about last seasons' playoffs? Ah, his GAA was 3.76 and his S% was below .900. He's gotta be better than that, and against Boston Fred is surely going to face an onslaught of discs. The Leafs themselves were exposed as not-so-good sans Jake Gardiner, who missed 20 games in the regular season this past season. It's gonna be a hard-hitting series for sure. Toronto was only 8-7-3 in a stretch where Gardiner missed 18 games towards the end of the season. Jake Muzzin is coming back in the lineup. But is he 100%?

Pacific Divison San Jose Sharks (2) Vs. Vegas Golden Knights (3)

San Jose Will Win If: A) Erik Karlsson plays better and B) Martin Jones is Martin Jones. Erik scored only 3 goals this past season, and needs to play like he did back in the 2017 postseason with Ottawa. He missed 29 games in 2018/19 and scored just 3 goals in 53 contests. I wouldn't be concerned with goalie Martin Jones' play in the regular season. He's shown time and time again he's a different netminder in the spring. His postseason numbers are excellent: In 42 career playoff games, Martin is 22-18 with a 2.07 GAA and .926 S%

Vegas Will Win If: Their defense and goaltending withstand San Jose's potentially potent offence. San Jose finished tied for second with Calgary in goals for (289) by Western Conference teams. Vegas scored just 249 goals in the 2018/19 regular season. Plus, they gave up nearly that many (230). The loss of James Neal clearly hurt the Golden Knights. Jon Marchessault played all 82 games in the regular season, but had only 59 points for the team lead. Jon had 75 points the previous year. Also seeing his play drop from last year to this was goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. His S% went from .927 in 2017/18 to just .913 in 18/19. He was saddled with 61 games this season, so he might be mentally strained. Backup Malcolm Subban was just 8-10-2 in 21 games. He's in no position to step in.

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